Thank you for this powerful and prescient vision, Rob. It puts current events in perspective and makes clear that the future depends on the manifestation of compassion, insight and collective mutually beneficial action. True spiritual leaders will emerge to guide society - and beware the false prophets… 🙏
I am grateful to you, Rob, for this incredibly powerful article about the kind of future that could be if we have the wisdom to follow the goat paths rather than following misguided leaders over the cliff.
You are correct in saying that AI is a very powerful tool that must be taken from the hands of billionaires, interested only in increasing their personal fortunes, and given to people motivated to find real solutions to the climate and biodiversity crisis. I will share your article as widely as possible.
"two tools: compassion, which provides the fuel, and insight into the radical interdependence of all phenomena" - the Lamaist concept of dependent-arising.
May I suggest delving deep into the metacrisis. I believe that will relieve you of any optimism of finding ways to thread the needle. https://metacrisis.info/
I believe we are in an unsolvable predicament. We won’t get put of the mess, but if our species is lucky, some of us may make it through the bottleneck.
“All cultures relying on modernity are a form of local equilibriums that last until larger realities come crashing down, as if Earth itself shudders to cast off a pest. Civilisations come and go, and few of them ever saw it coming. Post-apocalypse, a few survivors may scatter in search of higher ground where the process can repeat itself.”
That is not to say that we shouldn’t try our damndest.
Hi Rob, just wrote a short piece (mostly AI) on the ratchet system of warming, how cloud loss, dehydration, heat domes, stratification and fires lead to extra co2 release and loss of capacity which then locks the whole system into the higher temperature regime . The Idea of trying to cross the mountain came to mind as the article tries to explain that if we moderate the extremes we can cross the mountain without going over the peaks but through the high mountain passes instead. Much easier I think as we try to cope with the transition. Many thanks
Hi Theodore, thank you. Love to see that piece. As you may know I have been advocating a strategic regeneration of the biosphere to cool the planet and calm the weather resulting in better cloud cover, rehydration etc. Some of my posts here were about exactly that. Love to compare notes, Kind regards, Rob
We could slow down polar meltings, It would take great sacrifice. Particularly the many thousands of dams around the planet. But to Theodors point MODERATING EXTREMES. Our Northern Hemisphere Arctic has been manipulated to cause extreme conditions in that region t, unfortunately this extreme has affects on climate all over the globe
Once you stop or severely slow down Earths moving bodies of water you begin to create extreme condition that are amplified throughout. There is little to no separation between atmosphere and water. If one is affected the other is.
Thank you, Rob for the cultural parallels and nice essay that is driven by a very necessary optimism. Although Jan is on the opposite and less positivist mentality, he nailed the problem of both general and present times: the corrosive effect of unholy interests (mostly financial). Trying to concile Rob's necessary optimism with Jan's objectivity, I suggest in https://dpreda.net/earth/ a path where the financial apetite of the most powerful is redirected towards positive outcomes. There is a technical summary there, but who wants a free copy of the entire eBook can just email me at: dorin@dpreda.net
I would like to debate and collaborate for finding the best composite method of pushing things on a more effcient Earth reconstruction path. Let us keep in touch!
I fully agree with your analysis that forests (particularly rainforests in South America, Africa and Asia) would have a far greater effect on reducing Earth's average surface temperature than the relatively small cooling effect which could be obtained by reducing carbon emissions. Reducing emissions seems to be the primary strategy of many environmental groups and national governments. In my opinion, this strategy is seriously flawed and will only help us get even closer to the edge of Rob's cliff rather than encouraging us to choose one of his goat paths. Regeneration is the key to success, not emission reduction.
I like your idea of redirecting the financial appetite of the rich and powerful to more positive outcomes. I think Rob has some ideas about how investors could be motivated to redirect their money towards regeneration, ocean recovery and other nature-based opportunities.
In parallel, I believe that more effort should go into refusing approval of unsustainable AI data centres which consume enormous quantities of cooling water and power. It is another example of benefits for a handful of wealthy investors at the expense of millions of ordinary people. When investors realise that there is a growing tsunami of resistance against data centres, this could help to motivate them to invest in more positive outcomes. I have nothing against AI, per se. It is the current method of large scale implementation which I find objectionable.
Hi David, thank you for supporting the idea. The emissions reduction is underway, however slow and clumsy (and CO2 still rising) but indeed, the really fast change could come from strategic biosphere regeneration. I have no doubt about that.
Thank you, David, for considering my economically-beneficial solution of climate and land restoration; planting useful trees and correcting our diet I think is the key to real, large scale results. It still needs a re-think of our ways, as TD said, because we cannot correct an old problem with old mentality. This addresses also what cliff Krrolick said about the new path, because the solution is to back up on our own tracks and accept that it was bad that we changed our diet from fruit, legumes and little white meat to the present cereals and red meat diet. This change thas ruined the Earth's land, it's climate and our health: https://dpreda.net/earth. I would like to know your opinions; I offer free copies of my eBook, which complements Rob's restoration initiative. I believe that co-operation is the key to success.
This is a great post, but unfortunately is based on magical thinking. It does not account for 1) human nature, which targets short-termism and greed above all, and 2) misaligned incentives, which rewards bad actors against your desired outcomes.
Unless there is a serious attempt to address these factors, this is just a dream, no?
Everything that you have said has been taken into account. There is nobody here that is under any illusions. Without seeing any path ahead.....There will never be a path
Thank you for this powerful and prescient vision, Rob. It puts current events in perspective and makes clear that the future depends on the manifestation of compassion, insight and collective mutually beneficial action. True spiritual leaders will emerge to guide society - and beware the false prophets… 🙏
I am grateful to you, Rob, for this incredibly powerful article about the kind of future that could be if we have the wisdom to follow the goat paths rather than following misguided leaders over the cliff.
You are correct in saying that AI is a very powerful tool that must be taken from the hands of billionaires, interested only in increasing their personal fortunes, and given to people motivated to find real solutions to the climate and biodiversity crisis. I will share your article as widely as possible.
Thank you David!
"two tools: compassion, which provides the fuel, and insight into the radical interdependence of all phenomena" - the Lamaist concept of dependent-arising.
Great post.
May I suggest delving deep into the metacrisis. I believe that will relieve you of any optimism of finding ways to thread the needle. https://metacrisis.info/
Hi Jan, thank you. Our assessments are comparable, but the small remaining openings to get us out of the mess should not be dismissed IMHO.
I believe we are in an unsolvable predicament. We won’t get put of the mess, but if our species is lucky, some of us may make it through the bottleneck.
From https://gnug315.substack.com/p/our-planet-sized-gordian-knot
“All cultures relying on modernity are a form of local equilibriums that last until larger realities come crashing down, as if Earth itself shudders to cast off a pest. Civilisations come and go, and few of them ever saw it coming. Post-apocalypse, a few survivors may scatter in search of higher ground where the process can repeat itself.”
That is not to say that we shouldn’t try our damndest.
Hi Rob, just wrote a short piece (mostly AI) on the ratchet system of warming, how cloud loss, dehydration, heat domes, stratification and fires lead to extra co2 release and loss of capacity which then locks the whole system into the higher temperature regime . The Idea of trying to cross the mountain came to mind as the article tries to explain that if we moderate the extremes we can cross the mountain without going over the peaks but through the high mountain passes instead. Much easier I think as we try to cope with the transition. Many thanks
Hi Theodore, thank you. Love to see that piece. As you may know I have been advocating a strategic regeneration of the biosphere to cool the planet and calm the weather resulting in better cloud cover, rehydration etc. Some of my posts here were about exactly that. Love to compare notes, Kind regards, Rob
We could slow down polar meltings, It would take great sacrifice. Particularly the many thousands of dams around the planet. But to Theodors point MODERATING EXTREMES. Our Northern Hemisphere Arctic has been manipulated to cause extreme conditions in that region t, unfortunately this extreme has affects on climate all over the globe
Once you stop or severely slow down Earths moving bodies of water you begin to create extreme condition that are amplified throughout. There is little to no separation between atmosphere and water. If one is affected the other is.
Thank you, Rob for the cultural parallels and nice essay that is driven by a very necessary optimism. Although Jan is on the opposite and less positivist mentality, he nailed the problem of both general and present times: the corrosive effect of unholy interests (mostly financial). Trying to concile Rob's necessary optimism with Jan's objectivity, I suggest in https://dpreda.net/earth/ a path where the financial apetite of the most powerful is redirected towards positive outcomes. There is a technical summary there, but who wants a free copy of the entire eBook can just email me at: dorin@dpreda.net
I would like to debate and collaborate for finding the best composite method of pushing things on a more effcient Earth reconstruction path. Let us keep in touch!
Hi Dorin;
I fully agree with your analysis that forests (particularly rainforests in South America, Africa and Asia) would have a far greater effect on reducing Earth's average surface temperature than the relatively small cooling effect which could be obtained by reducing carbon emissions. Reducing emissions seems to be the primary strategy of many environmental groups and national governments. In my opinion, this strategy is seriously flawed and will only help us get even closer to the edge of Rob's cliff rather than encouraging us to choose one of his goat paths. Regeneration is the key to success, not emission reduction.
I like your idea of redirecting the financial appetite of the rich and powerful to more positive outcomes. I think Rob has some ideas about how investors could be motivated to redirect their money towards regeneration, ocean recovery and other nature-based opportunities.
In parallel, I believe that more effort should go into refusing approval of unsustainable AI data centres which consume enormous quantities of cooling water and power. It is another example of benefits for a handful of wealthy investors at the expense of millions of ordinary people. When investors realise that there is a growing tsunami of resistance against data centres, this could help to motivate them to invest in more positive outcomes. I have nothing against AI, per se. It is the current method of large scale implementation which I find objectionable.
Hi David, thank you for supporting the idea. The emissions reduction is underway, however slow and clumsy (and CO2 still rising) but indeed, the really fast change could come from strategic biosphere regeneration. I have no doubt about that.
Thank you, David, for considering my economically-beneficial solution of climate and land restoration; planting useful trees and correcting our diet I think is the key to real, large scale results. It still needs a re-think of our ways, as TD said, because we cannot correct an old problem with old mentality. This addresses also what cliff Krrolick said about the new path, because the solution is to back up on our own tracks and accept that it was bad that we changed our diet from fruit, legumes and little white meat to the present cereals and red meat diet. This change thas ruined the Earth's land, it's climate and our health: https://dpreda.net/earth. I would like to know your opinions; I offer free copies of my eBook, which complements Rob's restoration initiative. I believe that co-operation is the key to success.
This is a great post, but unfortunately is based on magical thinking. It does not account for 1) human nature, which targets short-termism and greed above all, and 2) misaligned incentives, which rewards bad actors against your desired outcomes.
Unless there is a serious attempt to address these factors, this is just a dream, no?
Everything that you have said has been taken into account. There is nobody here that is under any illusions. Without seeing any path ahead.....There will never be a path